Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY Key Levels

By Daniel Moss7 days ago

Japanese Yen, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, Cycle Analysis – Talking Points:

  • Cycle analysis suggests the Japanese Yen may be at risk of extended losses against its major counterparts in the coming months.
  • Ascending Triangle hints at gains for AUD/JPY rates.
  • Ascending Channel pattern guiding GBP/JPY rates higher.
  • Key support at 109.00 holding firm for USD/JPY.

The Japanese Yen has faced significant headwinds in recent weeks, as climbing sovereign bond yields put the carry-trade back in vogue. This dynamic looks set to endure over the near-term and may open the door to further losses for JPY. Here are the key levels for AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY rates.

Majors-Based Japanese Yen Index Monthly Chart

Chart prepared by Daniel Moss, created with Tradingview

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*JPY Index averages USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY

The chart above highlights the cyclical pattern displayed by the Japanese Yen over the past 37 years, with the currency largely adhering to what appears to be an 8-and-a-half year rotation. JPY set significant bottoms against its major counterparts in late 1998, early 2007 and late 2015.

After bottoming out, the haven-associated currency then seems to outperform early in the cycle, with key highs posted roughly two years after the 1998 and 2007 lows.

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